The future as predicted 107 years ago...

[HighWiz]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

I'm still waiting for Sky-net...

I'm surprised Bascule hasn't jumped in on this conversation with his thoughts on the singularity.

[Thorn]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

I also believe they'll find a way to actually add length and girth to those needing help in that department.

You mean they don't already? Are you saying those emails I keep getting are lies?!?!

[SlackJaw]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

I wouldn't mind the "free university education" come to pass, but the implications could be precarious. I believe the value of a traditional, formal education is inherently connected to the cost.

Having said that, my future prediction is based on education: one will need specialized skills and abilities to earn and achieve. I know that's the case today, but I mean it will be mandated as unskilled labor becomes obsolete and unnecessary.

I also believe they'll find a way to actually add length and girth to those needing help in that department.

[TheCotMan]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

There are many problems with the concept of growing organs, and there is a great deal we will likely need to accomplish before that is possible. If grown from the patient, then there is risk in having the original failure in the organ exist in the replacement-- especially in cases where the cause was genetic. We'll have to better understand how to induce cellular specialization, and how to inhibit expression of certain genes to aid with proper organ development. Additionally, we will have to better understand hormones, when and how much should be released during development. All of this is compounded with the legal limitations imposed on human experimentation.

Perhaps, with overpopulation, and greater limits from lack of water than lack of land with food production, a new class of human will come to exist which will legally be designated as "expendable" thus making human experimentation with medicine acceptable to the masses. Something will have to change in order to see quick development in medicine that can be used on humans.

A flying car makes little sense for the future of the common man. Flying on Earth, fighting against gravity uses a great deal of energy compared to rolling on roads. Vehicles using wheels are actually quite efficient at short distance travel on roads, when compared to flying. I think we will see more mass transit, and maybe a return to using trains, trams, trolleys, or buses. If flying cars to come to exist, the percent of the population using them will be much smaller than the percent of population presently piloting their own vehicles. (If you think drunk driving is a problem, consider drunk flying. Similar considerations for falling asleep while driving/flying, and risks for when parts on the flying car fail vs. what happens when parts fail on an automobile.

Without some sort of war, pandemic, or new product like "soylent green" to interfere with the global population growth, and cheap alternatives to our energy, "needs," I predict a reversal of the population shift from inner cities to suburbs, as people instead move closer to work, and/or mass-transit stations. Living 30 or 50 or more miles from work, and driving your own car that full distance will be too expensive for the common person. The price for water to our homes will increase faster than the rate of inflation. (More on this later.)

Industrialized agriculture will become the only way to produce food for the masses, and as GM foods, cause non-GM foods to be the first crops hit by pests, creating a feedback loop to encourage farming to pay for GM foods and as nature catches up to adapt new pests that like our GM foods, new rounds of R&D will be funded with increasing prices on foods, where new monopolies will ultimately be created. This will happen slowly, as people buy the cheaper, better looking foods at stores.

Humans using water for drinking, elimination of waste, growing of crops for eating, growing crops to feed animals, cleaning, growing crops that will be converted to alternative fuels (corn, soybeans, sugar beets, more), industrialization, and for the protection of endangered species are all competing against each other. I will guess that endangered species will be the first losers in the battle over water and survival.

Desalinization plants, water reclamation system, and processing plants to convert sewage water to drinking water (or water for farms) will be costly, and cause further drains on energy resources, many of which demand water to function, creating a 2-stage cycle with both stages demanding the limited resource being "created" by the other.

The masses won't conserve resources until there is a financial incentive to do so. A financial incentive will be created as supply decreases, or does not increase as quickly as demand. The invisible hand of economics will pull double duty as it also encourages people to conserve or pay. A greater demand for products that conserve expensive resources.

Another item that comes into play when resources are pinched, and become more limited, is war-- especially when the resources in limited supply are in any area of the 3 basic needs for human survival. War becomes another way to slow demand for resources, as eliminating population decreases demand, just as people choosing to buy less because of costs also decreases demands.

Going back to the lack of water issue: attempts to reclaim sewage waste water, and gray water for processing back to water for farming and human crops, or direct to drinking water, there is much greater risk for spreading diseases over large populations geographically, as there are more opportunities for mistakes to be made-- mistakes that will be stated as never to happen due to fail-safes that will be planned. There is also risk for "water standards" to be rewritten such that water previously not considered acceptable for drinking will become acceptable by regulation.

Limiting water and power further pinch the food processing industry which use water and power to clean systems, and encourage farmers and ranchers to re-use (treated) waste water from livestock for livestock increase risk for mass infection that may not be caught until after the food is processed and introduced for consumption by humans, pets or other animals.

Many opportunities will be created in the form of new problems to solve. Many of these problems will need urgent consideration and be critical in nature.

Now for the good news...
Necessity is a HUGE part of revolutionary invention.

We will likely make great advances in the realm of industrialized agriculture, especially where minimizing water-loss and maximizing production exist.

Cheap, low-energy systems to convert large volumes of water from various sources into safe drinking water will be invented. Nanotechnology may be the tool.

Space travel, and colonization of other places will never mirror travel an expansion on Earth like re-settling of "the West" unless there is a financial incentive to do so. Once something sufficiently profitable to justify the costs of transporting people to and from other planets, we may see sustained colonization of other planets. Additionally, people will need to own tools necessary for personal interplanetary travel, for the kind of colonization where people chose to move to a new location on their own. First "waves" of colonization would more likely be government, or corporate depending on which has more incentive.

The next "big" tool that might actually be a killer application if developed quickly enough, will be a personal information aggregator, and will be included in computers and whatever we call PDA. These systems will be able to take, snarf, steal, information that actually matters to a person, and will learn what that person needs, wants, or likes. This will ultimately replace newspaper, TV-style news, and radio news. It will be applied to everything from movies to watch, to news around the world, comic strips, humor, and more. Such systems will also be able to alert you to other people that choose to advertise their interests in such devices. With GPS integration, users will be able to find where other peopel that share their interests, and choose to announce this information, seem to spend time. Once use exceeds 60% by population, its use will eventually be co-opted to allow Law Enforcement, DHS, or ??? to find or search for people of interest and profile them, bypassing the user-selected choice to broadcast interests. It wil probably eventually be integrated into a phone, audio player, tv, video player, and more, as a single device which can be "docked" with cars, office-spaces, homes, and more. This will become more and more useful as we are flooded with information overload, and wish to have information filtered to the content we want. Google is in a good position to provide this.

The US will continue to decline as a world power, and as the "rich" export their liquid assets and convert to the Euro, or some other currency. We will see uncontrolled inflation, possibly at the same time as recession. As a result, the US will once again become a relatively cheap place for industrialization and human labor. Natural resources and national parks will be harvested and sold to postpone or soften the changing economy. The US may once again start to export goods to other countries. This may lead to a shor-term, second industrial revolution.

Las Vegas will become a modern ghost town. Costs of electricity, transportation of goods, access to water, and more will cause it to become too expensive to keep it running while other gambling locations like tribal gaming, Lake Tahoe, or Reno are available and closer to access people from LA and Orange County.

Every problem listed above will be attacked by humans, and I think some of the biggest inventions will be directly related to our needs, or side-effects of this research.

The new high-paying job in the tech sector will not be the programmer, but a new position like a Systems Engineer. They will excel at integrating existing technology to build totally new systems very quickly. Blue-collar, "grunt," work will be relegated to programmers. A skilled "New Systems Engineer" will be able to cut months off of normal development cycles by relying on existing technology to make it possible to get to market first. This will increase the initial build cost, but allow a company to be first to a ground of contention. Future generations of products will require more programming, but be funded by profits from the first round of first generation systems.

[Thorn]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

I would like to make one prediction though, the world will not end by any natural means, nor by war or strife. the world shall end because some too-smart for his own good scientist develops something that simply wipes mankind from existence.

<shrug> Mary Wollstonecraft Shelley predicted that science would destroy it's creator long before Verne was born, and it still hasn't happened. Frankly, I'd rather be living longer and enjoying the benefits from technology than being short-lived, disease-ridden, cold and hungry as in Shelley's day.

[MiL]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

With a sad attempt trying too relate with the first post, I remeber Jules Vernes predicting satelite technology in his books, and then there was Da Vinci with his most interesting sketches.

I would like to make one prediction though, the world will not end by any natural means, nor by war or strife. the world shall end because some too-smart for his own good scientist develops something that simply wipes mankind from existence.

Something exciting for you physics buffs http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_Hadron_Collider

[renderman]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

Even parents that are concerned about their children being kidnapped. Though, I believe, when the child grows up he/she should have the choice to have it removed.

Right there, that's the crap I want to stop. (No offense, it's just that your statement was a prime example of the pro-side of the arguments over pitching the use of RFID)

Hmm, passive RFID tag implanted under the skin. Read range: about a foot if your lucky.

How does this help prevent kidnapping? It might help you sort out body parts afterwards, but it cannot relay GPS location to the feds in case of abduction. An active tag, read range, 10's of feet. Still not that useful and is significantly bulkier making it obvious to your kidnappers and removing the usefulness of an implanted (i.e. hidden, non-removable) tag. In either case, if I can read it, I can probably see it.

I'm derailing this thread are'nt I. My apologies.

[Thorn]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

i'd say Google for "mark of the beast" and look at the results that come up. looks like almost 50% of them pertain to VeriChip technology. granted, much talk on the internet is representative of the extreme fringe and not mainstream views, but still... i think this sort of fear of RFID has more of a following than many are aware of.

Yeah, I'm aware of that viewpoint, as I first came across that particular weirdness when Render and I were writing RFID Security. Judging by the hysteria and misinformation, they seem to be a bunch of neo-Luddites who don't understand anything more technological than an elevator, and who fear anything they don't understand.

what is the current record at which anyone has experimentally read an RFID tag?

isn't the EZ-Pass toll collection system RFID-based? the readers there are way at the top of the toll lanes, something like 6 to 8 feet above most vehicles. quite outside the "12 to 16 inches" that many manufacturers report. so what's the deal there?

do they have additional tech inside of the EZ Pass transponder besides what one sees in a typical, let's say, animal ID tag? one toll collector once said that she suspected my "batter was dying" when my tag failed to read properly. i didn't want to tell her blatantly that i thought she was off her rocker since i have never cracked one open (and there didn't seem to be any productive way of informing her that i always stick my EZ Pass tags in the microwave as soon as they arrive in the mail) but that can't be right, can it? is there some sort of amplifier technology inside these little white boxes?

Let me answer the second question first, and explain theworkings of EzPass tags. Before I even do that however, you have to understand that RFID devices come in two basic flavors:"passive" and "active". Both act as transponders, in that they receive a specific signal and respond to it. However, they are drastically different in how they work internally.

Passive RFID tags work by getting electromagnetic energy within the "near field" of a radio transmitter. A coil-capacitor circuit with the tag coverts that electromagnetic energy from the RFID Reader into electricity and uses the electricity to power a very low power transmitter for a very short amount of time. This means that passive tags have to be physically near the transmitter, as passive tags will only work in the near field. While the near field varies by frequency and the RF power, it is usually within several inches -out to a maximum of several feet- of the Reader at the frequencies and power levels currently in use by RFID devices.

Active tags contain a battery (or an external power supply) and are able to transmit over greater distances than passive tags. Well outside of the near field. Active tags are much larger than passive tags, by several orders of magnitude owing to having a battery on board the device. They also may contain a more powerful transmitter.

A passive tag can be as small as a grain of rice. The largest passive RFID device I've ever personally seen was about 6"x6"x1/4" in size. Other the other hand, active tags start at about the size of 2"x2"x1/4" and can go up to the size of a of CD-ROM drive.

Both active and passive tags may contain something as simple as a serial number, a series of strings or more some more information, or may actually exchange encrypted information. For example, Ford uses passive RFID tags implanted within the keys many models of cars including the Explorer. Even with a key cut to the correctly physical pattern, you will not be able to start the car without the correct RFID device exchanging encrypted information with the vehicle.*

Examples of passive devices are those VeriChip units, and the the typical "pet chips" used for veterinary ID purposes.

The EzPass (FastPass, etc.) are probably the most common active device seen by the public. And, yes, these devices do contain a battery.

The Exxon/Mobil SpeedPass key fobs are passive devices, while the rarer vehicle-mounted SpeedPass tags are active devices.**

So, to answer your first question, the longest distance that an RIFD device has been read was an active tag -similar to an EzPass- that was read at about 70 feet. That was accomplished at DC12 or DC13.

The maximum that a passive tag can be read varies with the size of the near field. I believe that stands at about 12 feet as the longest distance a passive tag may be read. There are certain laws of RF physics that prevent the near field from getting much larger.

Notes:

Aircraft IFF transponders are another example of an active RFID device (and historically they are the very first RFID devices), although they are not as well known by the general public, and usually not what most people thing about as an RFID tag. IFF units are typically read over very long distances (tens and hundreds of miles). These devices are specifically designed for this purpose, have high powered transmitters, special antennas, and are physically very large in comparison to most other RFID devices.

*The encryption used in the Ford keys was broken by Johns Hopkins students in 2005.
**Ditto. Exxon/Mobile and Ford used the same encryption scheme.

(Render is right. Write a book on a subject and you tend to learn far more than you ever wanted to know... )

[Deviant Ollam]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

or that they can be read at great distances

what is the current record at which anyone has experimentally read an RFID tag?

isn't the EZ-Pass toll collection system RFID-based? the readers there are way at the top of the toll lanes, something like 6 to 8 feet above most vehicles. quite outside the "12 to 16 inches" that many manufacturers report. so what's the deal there?

do they have additional tech inside of the EZ Pass transponder besides what one sees in a typical, let's say, animal ID tag? one toll collector once said that she suspected my "batter was dying" when my tag failed to read properly. i didn't want to tell her blatantly that i thought she was off her rocker since i have never cracked one open (and there didn't seem to be any productive way of informing her that i always stick my EZ Pass tags in the microwave as soon as they arrive in the mail) but that can't be right, can it? is there some sort of amplifier technology inside these little white boxes?

[ghost_hex]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

Human chipping has it's purposes: finding pets, locating people with Alzheimer's. Even parents that are concerned about their children being kidnapped. Though, I believe, when the child grows up he/she should have the choice to have it removed.

What I find so cool, is the ability to take the human genome and print it! That ability is the beginnings of new bridges!

Imagine a doctor not having to keep collecting sample after sample of a damaged tissue or, having to conserve their materials. They can just stick the sample in to their modified printer and presto! They have more materials to work with so, they can perform all the tests they need. The Doctors don't have to gather more samples from an already overly stressed patient.

The printing of proteins then, opens up the possibility of growing organs. Imagine a family member only having to wait for the organ to grow; not for a patient that continually changes his/her mind.

These capabilities hopefully are in the near future. Then again, I have always been a dreamer.

[renderman]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

i'd say Google for "mark of the beast" and look at the results that come up. looks like almost 50% of them pertain to VeriChip technology. granted, much talk on the internet is representative of the extreme fringe and not mainstream views, but still... i think this sort of fear of RFID has more of a following than many are aware of.

I'm currently working on a project to go mythbusters on some of the crackpot 'facts' used on both sides of the RFID debate.

I've spent way too much time reading about this (write a book and you learn more than you ever wanted) and The opposition (aside for generic religious fury) always seems to be a misguided notion that such tags either contain loads of personal information (instead of just the unique ID they have) or that they can be read at great distances (such as satellites), another preposterous fear.

That said, it's wise to understand the risks/benifits of such technology so we *don't* go down a slippery slope where the technology can be abused as some of the outlandish fears suggest.

RFID has it's place but should be completely evaluated and understood before going forward. The oft cited data center employees who got RFID implants did so voluntarily (other employees opted for key fobs. Guess the chipped ones loose their keys alot) and were not mandated as part of employment.

<PLUG>
Keep an eye on personalwireless.org for my semi-regular rants about dumb RFID fears and assertions
</PLUG>

[Deviant Ollam]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

I'm not sure that those religious groups opposed to RFID will be helpful to opposing required implants. ... I've never seen anyone have any reaction besides a smirk and rolling their eyes.

i'd say Google for "mark of the beast" and look at the results that come up. looks like almost 50% of them pertain to VeriChip technology. granted, much talk on the internet is representative of the extreme fringe and not mainstream views, but still... i think this sort of fear of RFID has more of a following than many are aware of.

[Thorn]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

This may be cutting close to the P&R cliff, but here goes:

the time line for RFID implants to potentially become universal (or at least, materially integrated with the workings of modern society) is rather long, decades in my view. religions will have fallen by the way side in any meaningful sense by such a time, and with them will have demised the outrage over liturgy of the Apocalypse/Revelation.

That's wishful thinking, I'm afraid. Belief in the supernatural is one of those things that humans seem to be quite capable of continued self-delusion, and organized groups seem to just extend the life of such fallacies. Stamping out ritualistic superstition is something I'm very pessimistic about. It will take thousands of years in my view.

Part of it is the brainwashing that most groups as a whole require of the youngsters by their elders. Once they get old enough to think critically, the kids literally cannot do so, unless they are incredibly smart or extremely strong-willed. That makes it self-perpetuating.

Getting back to the discussion at hand, I'm not sure that those religious groups opposed to RFID will be helpful to opposing required implants. By the very nature of their arguments -a certain interpretation of some obscure scripture, which could be read as anything from an RFID implant, to a birthmark, to a tattoo- I've never seen anyone have any reaction besides a smirk and rolling their eyes. I've even seen that among some very religious folks. To me, that translates to most people seeing that the "RFID = the make of the beast" belief as particular to a fringe group. Even if they were organized enough to mount some real opposition, all they might gain (or want) is a religious exemptions for any government requirement for RFID. Religious exemptions have always been an accepted part of the church and state separations. Many religious groups in this country have lawful exceptions to government actions based solely on their religion's opposition to a given action of agenda.

[Deviant Ollam]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

Human micro-chipping will be as common as getting a driver's license.

see, i don't totally know about that. in fact, this is the one single part of human existence that may actually have a slight chance of being made better by religious loon-bags. many fundamentalists consider the whole RFID notion to be akin to the "mark of the beast" prophesied in scripture. (many parallels, i'll admit... particularly relating to how the liturgy describes one's inability to conduct business without said mark.)

there's a chance that the fervor over such "mark of the beast" fears could shove the notion of human chipping off the table. the only trick is, it would (in my view) have to be preemptive legislation. the time line for RFID implants to potentially become universal (or at least, materially integrated with the workings of modern society) is rather long, decades i believe. religions will have fallen by the way side in any meaningful sense by such a time, and with them will have demised the outrage over liturgy of the Apocalypse/Revelation.

no, i think our best hope would be the leveraging of the fears of today's generations of highly-vociferous nutjobs. getting prominent religious leaders in a fury and having them stir up their congregations could actually have a chance at congressional leaders passing legislation that would (one could hope) outlaw the use of RFID for any public purpose recognized by the government. (in my view, that would be financial transfers and identification. private firms would still be free to use RFID for security measures, etc... but government agencies and public employees would be barred from such methods)

[ghost_hex]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

The fruit prediction is very appealing. I can't wait for that one. :)

I predict within the next 100 years:
- organ donation will most likely, if not completely, be replaced by organ 'printing'.
Doctors won't have to wait for an organ to be flown from the other side of the country.
- The Human Race will be colonizing the moon.
- Organ cloning might become obsolete. (Why wait for a organ to grow in a petri-dish when you can just print one out?)
- Human micro-chipping will be as common as getting a driver's license. 'Chipping' may even replace licenses all together.
(I hope not, the thought of someone knowing where I am every minute of everyday is scary.)