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  • Forum Growth in New Members

    [Thread was started in /dev/null]

    I've never really used geocities much before now and I set up this temporary space to see how it works.

    forums new member growth

    It seems we have a growth of about 2.5X more New Members (on average) each year since Jan 2002.

    This exceeds the historical gain in CPU speeds as suggested from predictions in CPU complexity from Moore's Law (doubling of CPU complexity every 18 months.)

    Given "enough time" with the given rates remaining unchanged, the forums would exceed containment for one machine....

    Of course "enough time" could easily be years or decades depending on user retention. ]:>

    Looking at the middle "compact" bar graph, you should see the "Sum" bars are approaching a nice cyclic wave.... ( sexy! )



    Last edited by TheCotMan; February 27, 2005, 21:46.

  • #2
    Don't compare it with Moore's Law, compare it to the birth rates since 1986, this will assume users logon here at age 16, find out if we are growing at the birth rate.

    You can do it in reverse too, find our rate of expansion and find a birth rate year to go with it, that should give us the average age of those joining.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by astcell
      Don't compare it with Moore's Law, compare it to the birth rates since 1986, this will assume users logon here at age 16, find out if we are growing at the birth rate.

      You can do it in reverse too, find our rate of expansion and find a birth rate year to go with it, that should give us the average age of those joining.
      That would require a weighting based on birth rates in countries with respect to technology and chances for their population to speak english.

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      • #4
        How much time did you spend on this? You know, you could have just asked me for the statistical data I've already got.

        But wow, I'm definitely impressed…

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        • #5
          Originally posted by nulltone
          How much time did you spend on this?
          I am guessing about 45 minutes of member searches in the forums to gather monthly join date data, 1 hour to add the data to a spreadsheet and figure out how to use Open Office's spreadsheet -> graph tools, and 15 minutes to understand geocities, push the images and make the html.

          You know, you could have just asked me for the statistical data I've already got.
          Yeah, but that would have been too easy, and taken much less time.
          (When you are sick, sleeping or keeping your mind off your condition work wonders, and I slept too much over the past 6 days. :-)

          But wow, I'm definitely impressed…
          Thanks man!

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          • #6
            Considering the ineptness of many of the posts due to the large number of asshats in the ring, maybe we can correlate the forum growth to the production of AOL9.0 disks....

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