Repent for the Singularity is near...

[TheCotMan]

CotMan, you're overlooking the big picture and just restating some classical economic problems surrounding when old technologies are discarded and new ones adopted.

But none of this matters when the singularity occurs because the rate of change will be so fast.

If we assume the rate of change will be so fast, then I think that will aplify the problems I outlined.

You say it's shortsighted to think that the existing infrastructure won't need to be ripped out and replaced as newer and better technologies are discovered. I say it's shortsighted to think that we can't leverage the existing infrastructure.

The future will tell us the answer to this. I'm trying to learn from history. :-)

Look at DSL/cable vs fiber. That's pumping megabits down century old infrastructure designs. Sure fiber is newer, faster, and better than twisted pair, but does everyone need that? No. If you're creative enough you can do amazing things with old infrastructures without having to force an upgrade. It's the old "good enough" technology adage...

A number of infrastructure upgrades "behind the scenes" have made many of these examples of reused technology possible.

How about some counter examples?
Changes from Serial-based terminals to 10 Base 2.
Realization that 10 Base 2 may be cheaper to install, but more costly to maintain, diagnose and troubleshoot, so a move from bus to star topology is completed.
10BaseT settled with Cat 3 cable, but along comes 100BaseT, and the need for Cat% cable.
Gigabit ethernet become available, and now we have new ratings of Cat5 cable, and some advertise "Cat 6" and existing support equipment to make new cables needs to be upgraded.
For each upgrade, hardware on both ends needed to be upgraded, and new cable needed to be run.

From my memory, there are more examples where new technology displaces "obselete" technology than there are examples of technology that remains unchanged for, hmmm how long do people live? 70 years?

Anyway, this will take off, and the rate of change will increase to the point that those who don't embrace the technology will simply be left behind.

Creating opportunity for the new SuperHumans to be, "better qualified," to build, design and be served by an even lower class of people. Hopefully, decision makers will have enough foresight to consider such risks when making laws.