Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

[Dark Tangent]

Hey everyone,

I was just sent this link with a request to confirm if the predictions are true or false in the end.

It seems like there is less excitement this year based on google results. Think this is accurate?

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/...onference_meme

[renderman]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

I think it's a case of impact of what's released. In the past, computer security issues were 'new and shiny' and got alot more press. Now they're common and there are also alot more conferences out there now.

Also, one can look at some of the high marks and attribute specific events that cause the high marks. i.e. the 1999 spike being the release of Back Orifice, 2000 is Bo2K. The 2001 spike is probably residual from the Sklyarov arrest. Since then, there haven't been any 'big things' to generate nearly the press that those events did (I'm working as hard as I can to correct that)

Google results I think are a poor indicator of attendance/excitement. What excites me is different than what might excite press or the general sheeple public

As long as there's good people around and a reasonable supply of beer and mayhem, I'll be quite happy with the con. Hell, I've quit a job to go, so I'm more than willing to bet that it's going to be a good time for myself.

[converge]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

I would question correlation between hits and attendance in previous years.. I'm not so certain that the connection is there. It seems that actual traffic is sporadic and low throughout the pre-con, with things drastically ramping as it nears and leaves. This is true for the Forums as well... where we've learned to use stats for tracking trends, but not to look too deep into them without following many other considerations that play into traffic shifts.

I have two factors that to me serve to contradict that prediction:

1) Involvement
This years Defcon is going to have more contests and events than any prior con that I've been to.. and guessably in the history of the conference. Participation and interest in the range of events has been decent to excellent across the DC Forums, other forums, irc and the like.. and we're still over a month away! Be prepared.. because if you thought your con schedule was cramped in previous years.. this year will absolutely result in sacrifice of *something* for most people.

2) Friends going
Over the past few years attendence of friends has been mixed.. we personally couldn't make it to 13, many of our friends couldn't show up last year. The general feel that I'm catching is that *everyone* that possibly can is showing up this year... be prepared.

[MitchMitchem]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

Do a google search for Defcon and look at the myriad of results. Using a broad search term and trying to say how relates to something specific is just plain silly.

Also, who gives a fuck if people search google for defcon? By now most people that would attend the conference know to go to defcon.org, thus eliminating them from the google search statistics.

[big chopper]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

I'd put more faith in:
1.) The comparative amount traffic on defcon.org
2.) The number of paper submissions
3.) The date at which the Riviera sold out, and how many rooms were reserved.
--bc,

[dYn4mic]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

In my realm of the world. I knew more people that went last year than I know are going this year. Some people I've talked to have an attitude about going of "ehh *shrug*".

A possible reason for a *possible* lesser turnout is the change in hotel location and:
while the conference gains:
1) size
2) contests
3) room and lines become less (at least, for the most part)...

It also...:
1) Lost "poolside" effect and community feeling
2) Security was a lot tighter (I didn't see any hotel guards partying last year heh)
3) Everyone was more spread out and anyone who was a "n00b" wouldn't feel as engulfed.

What renderman said I think is also "right on". Defcon does have to compete with a lot of other cons. (Although... defcon is a unique experience). I don't thing the google results are total bullshit.. but I don't think the turnout will be that much lower than last year. (So, probably back to how the turnout was for DC12/13)

I hope and think that a lot of the problems last year are going to be fixed this year and I am really looking forward to going.

[TheCotMan]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

As Defcon changes, the population changes.

Old Crew are now burdened with house payments, wives, kids, divorce, alimony, child support, and more. Some move further away from Las Vegas. Their priorities change. As they stop attending, their friends miss them, and sometimes, when enough friends stop going, the few hold-outs stop attending.

The largest group of people based on room utilization during presentations and casual observation, is probably comprised of people at the con that see presentations, because it is a cheap learning experience. Every year, I see more professionals, or people trying to look like professionals. An increase in this population is a double-edged sword. First, it brings in more revenue which pays for stuff that we use at con. However, many of these people at con for just presentations don't contribute in any way to any contest or event. This leaves only a few kind and giving people to make defcon better.

I wouldn't be surprised to find that a shrinking percent of total defcon users actually participate in contests.

With a changing population, the behavior of the "average" user changes. People that attend with an interest to run or participate in contests tend to visit much more often than those just interested inpresentations.

Additionally, word may have spread about how the hotel cracked down on parties, banned people form the hotel, and some party door bouncers were checking ID. Could you imagine ID checks going over very well at earlier Defcon?

I'm guessing that population will be about the same as last year, unless gas prices come down.

[astcell]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

People can be divided into three groups:
Those who make it happen.
Those who watch it happen.
Those who say "What happened?"

Those who make it happen are the core of Defcon. We all know who they are. Not only the goons and full-timers, but the folks who say, "Hey I had fun at the talk/contest/event, I think I will help out or sponsor one next year." This is what makes Defcon grow and flourish.

Those who watch it happen will be interrested only until the next event comes by. they are here for the moment. Today they like computers, tomorrow they like cars. They pop in and pop out and you never knew they were there for the most part. I have made several friends that I did not see at a later con and when I asked where they went, they said one was enough.

Those who say "What happened?" can include those who had no idea what to expect on both sides of the equation. While we appear to be loose felons to some, the stereotype ends up with harassment, pool closures, bans, evictions, and the many paying for the crimes of a few. I know some folks who say that the Riv sucks and they will not be back until Defcon is at a new venue. Sometimes walking a fine line and saying "Mother may I" and kissing up to goose steppoing secureity guards iot just a little too much. We put up with antics like that at work but at least they pay us to take it. Who wants a vacation where we get corraled like cattle and supervised like ants under a microscope?

The change in venue was huge and I feel that Defcon can only grow so much and then it is not Defcon any longer. We cannot have 15,000 people at Defcon 20. It would simply not be Defcon any longer.

I was not around in the early days, but I recall Defcon 8 as a religious experience. My first Defcon. Nothing will top it. DC9 and 10 were very good but after that it is a blur. There was nothing terribly memorable about them. I don't need to see CDC breaking tables to come back for another year, but it would be nice if there was a dramatic point made akin to the Back Orifice release, Napster shutting down, Kevin being freed, and Renderman making it on TV with his wi-fi weapons.

But then again we cannot just sit by and ask why nothing is happening. If you have been to Defcon before you know what it is about. Make something happen!

[Synapse]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

Damn you cotman, for always being able to seemingly analyze and then perfectly word what you want to say in a thread. :D


From my short experience here, I would say the attendance would only vary slightly. Afterall, I believe actual attendance was large last year?
Blackhat I assume is not getting any smaller, and many overflow from there and pop in to defcon.

The actual observation, would be what cotman addressed better. Which is the type of con turnout it will be.
Likely less older regulars, changes in behavior and people That made up the atmosphere.

DC12, was the best year for me (and first) I attended.
The balance between the community/atomosphere + presentations seemed great.
13 varied little, and the switch from AP at dc14 was simply new to everyone and probably will still not compete with atmosphere of AP.

Regardless, with the amount of room for presenstations.. ....and events etc.
Spawns new breeds of people, and most likely a more controlled and directed enviorment.

The google results will probably drop again, as the type of people who know about defcon go direct to their sources.. and as mentioned there isn't much to google about it.

Also comparing "sold out" hotels would be difficult to compare to total turnout. Especially since AP - which was smaller naturally didn't have room for playing around with availablity.

Maybe this should have been a poll? :D

[astcell]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

Maybe google results are down because we know where all the pages are by memory.

[dYn4mic]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

Maybe google results are down because we know where all the pages are by memory.

Yeah, that is a good point. Google results I think are an indication of purely new people to defcon that... don't even know that its "defcon.org" yet. Naturally less brand new people are finding out about defcon because of time itself and the ease of remembering where to get official defcon info. I don't think I've ever used google for finding defcon "con" information.

[HighWiz]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

I'm going to have to go with false.

[sarcasm]For one thing: I will be there this year, which means it will be the place to be! [/sarcasm]

Seriously though, I'll present some of my own data.

Having the Unofficial DefCon FAQ linked off the DefCon site allows me to grab statistics simply for the "defcon" sub domain on my site. So for this month (June), we're looking at (40639) hits.

Here's a link to a screen shot of the stats:

http://defcon.stotan.org/dcforums/defconstats.gif

For reference, a little under half (18462) are unique hits (filtering out bots as well).
There's really nothing else hosted on the sub domain.

If anyone is really curious about the detailed breakdown of hit, you can email me or hit me up on the channel on efnet.

So if we're purely using browsing and search statistics as our method for gauging attendance then I'd say chance our that attendance will be great this year than in years past.

[converge]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

The change in venue was huge and I feel that Defcon can only grow so much and then it is not Defcon any longer. We cannot have 15,000 people at Defcon 20. It would simply not be Defcon any longer.

This I'll disagree with. I think that the conference at its heart has the scalability to exceed 15,000 and still be a con that I want to go to every year. .. not to say that there isn't a limit.. but in a mass of 6,000 I gravitate to those that I most relate to and have a good time with. There is a lot that occurs at Defcon that I have 0 part and 0 interest in .. thats cool, I don't have to. Likewise others could give a squat about the things I enjoy or who I like to chill with ... thats cool too. Somewhere in between is a changing amount of overlap and we all have the opportunity to meet up in the middle under the umbrella of a general point of interest to us all.

Something of question is how long the core Defcon folks stay interested. As pointed out a few times, they'e getting older, taking up croquet and whittling .. at the prompting of Highwizard's FAQ I re-read DTs letter to the community for Defcon 9 .. what happens when DT simply loses interest in throwing the party? I think those core organizational efforts (or eventual lack of) are the only measurable limitations to the conference itself... from there it just depends on where the community decides to meet up next.

[DaKahuna]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

What? I thought DefCon was cancelled.

[TheCotMan]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

Maybe this should have been a poll? :D

Added. Multiple Choice. How "you" vote is public.

Maybe google results are down because we know where all the pages are by memory.

Maybe people are using other search engines. Maybe people know where the Defcon Website is. We've not seen the usual turn-up of many experienced defcon users to the forums, but HighWiz did come back. Maybe they will follow him?

(This reply to astcell, above)

Yeah, that is a good point. Google results I think are an indication of purely new people to defcon that... don't even know that its "defcon.org" yet. Naturally less brand new people are finding out about defcon because of time itself and the ease of remembering where to get official defcon info. I don't think I've ever used google for finding defcon "con" information.

Word of mouth, and links from other sites and news stories would seem to allow new people that find out about it, to find it from those stories online too.

Seriously though, I'll present some of my own data.

http://defcon.stotan.org/dcforums/defconstats.gif

It would be good to see a comparison of previous years too. I'll look into doing this with the forums too.

This I'll disagree with. I think that the conference at its heart has the scalability to exceed 15,000 and still be a con that I want to go to every year.

This may be an example of an implied "as I define it" with respect to Defcon. People do this with text and speech, and tend to omit clarification. What they can sometimes mean to say is, "When Defcon population hits 15,000 it will cease to be the Defcon that I remember."
A good counter to some people is this:
"You remember your Defcon experience?" (heh heh)

Something of question is how long the core Defcon folks stay interested. As pointed out a few times, they'e getting older, taking up croquet and whittling...

and yelling at kids, "STAY OFF MY LAWN!" and complaining about how their bodies are falling apart, and talking about their 401k, retirement plans, or their cats... ]:>

.. at the prompting of Highwizard's FAQ I re-read DTs letter to the community for Defcon 9 .. what happens when DT simply loses interest in throwing the party? I think those core organizational efforts (or eventual lack of) are the only measurable limitations to the conference itself... from there it just depends on where the community decides to meet up next.

Things change. Some people leave. Some people arrive. If the talented and skilled are not replaced, with people that love the work, and the time they spend with others at Defcon, then this will be a problem. However, this is still like the problem outlined above. Newer people have no history with the old guard, integration takes time. Goons can be goons not just because they have skills, but because they know other goons, and other people, and are able the leverage other people's resources to get things done. Changes in Goon population change the chemistry, and this changes experience, which is the primary thing people use when they determine their future attendance at other Defcon. Mythical Man Month may apply to running Defcon, with respect to expanding staff and goons, just like it applies to other projects, and organizations.