Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

[wsbpress]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

Without knowing much about MEMEs I wanted to point out that a video game with the name defcon came out last year and it has enjoyed a fair amount of popularity. I have a google alert that emails me when a new article with the word defcon is found by google news. There was some hype about a month ago when the game won some awards.

This is just FYI, I am not sure how this effects the predictions.

[bascule]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

There was some sort of bizzare Alexa spike in 2006 not present in earlier years. Not sure what else to base this on. Google Trends doesn't have recent information:

[TheCotMan]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

Posted to pics.defcon.org:

[pics=227]User Activity on the forums, 2001 to June 2007.[/pics]
The spikes you see are each post-defcon spikes.

[pics=226]Total Monthly, New User Signups on the forums, 2001-June 2007[/pics]

[shrdlu]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

I think that your population of respondents (the forum population) is far too narrow. For one, you have only those people who like (or at least tolerate) the forums. For another, you may all be thinking that the people who go, and have gone, to defcon, have mostly been party attenders, or contest participants. I never thought that either was true.

For a very few years, I attended only to see and hang out with friends that I only have the opportunity to see once or twice a year (and they know who they are). I never go to the parties. I don't like crowds, and loud music (it's certainly kept me from participating in CTF), but there's a lot more than just parties to be interested in. I'm rather glad we're back in a casino, and I never thought I'd say that, but at least it seems to have cut down on the population of people who were *only* there for the parties.

Other than those years where the presentations just seemed to all suck, the most important thing, *to me*, about defcon has been the talks and the various tech things going on, on the side (such as the wall of sheep, and the vendors). We all get different things out of it, and I suspect that often the group that is here forgets that a large part of the people who attend year after year don't really know anything about most of the things that are important to the people who inhabit the forums.

Sure, things have changed from the early days. Some of that's good. I think, in this big brother, post 9/11 world that we now inhabit, that taking satellite dishes off the roof, or stealing all the white courtesy phones (hands down, my favorite event ever), would not be tolerated. As I recall, we had a couple of years over at AP that were relatively quiet, but I can remember when we (i.e. defcon) were the the group that nearly everyone had blacklisted. Wasn't that one of the reasons we ended up at the AP? No one wanted us?

I think that the point about everyone who wants to attend not needing Google's services in finding it out is correct. I suspect that many people will decide whether or not to attend defcon based on who is (or isn't) speaking. If I see one or two outstanding talks, I'm happy, and it's all worth it. Even if I don't, I still see my friends.

It would be interesting if each person who attended was asked to fill out a quick form rating statements such as there:

1. I attend defcon for the parties.
2. I attend defcon for the talks.
3. I attend defcon to mix with the security expertise of other attendees.
4. I attend defcon to participate in/watch capture the flag.

...and so on.

I'll bet you'd be surprised. I'd guess 2 and 4 to be equally popular. I'm sure that 1 would have been more popular during the AP days (I expect that there are people who come ONLY to go to parties). I also expect that a more rigorous questionnaire would have better questions.

[converge]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

Very true.. and there are rabid attendees that made well known that they attend exclusively for talks, so much that the cramped atmosphere at the AP (and growing inability to experience talks) became a major sore point. This has been relieved by the venue change. Of course I miss the poolside atmosphere, but I don't think some folks are being as resourceful as they could with the Riv's layout. There are definitely hurdles, but I chalk a lot of the complaints up to newness of the venue.

..but like I mentioned.. one of the many identities of Defcon is that it can satisfy the dumb raver and the astute sober presentation nerd .. as well as the many hats in between.

From the stats perspective, a prior point regarding the data is worth re-itterating; defcon.org attendees are less likely to search for defcon.org resources through standard search engines.

[astcell]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

What happened to the drive from Ontario Mills Mall to Las Vegas? I did that at DC8 and DC9 then it went away. That was truly part of the Defcon event to me.

Maybe we can evaluate what killed other events and see if the same poison is elsewhere.

[LosT]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

Well, I created the Mystery Challenge to make Defcon a place I'd want to go- rather than just watching by the sidelines. I anticipate more participation in my contest this year than last....not sure how well that would correlate to actual Con attendance....

LosT

[theprez98]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

LAS VEGAS, NV--In Defcon-related news, LosT has been secretly building 6,000 mystery boxes in a single-handed effort to increase attendance at this year's event.

[renderman]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

Well, I created the Mystery Challenge to make Defcon a place I'd want to go- rather than just watching by the sidelines. I anticipate more participation in my contest this year than last....not sure how well that would correlate to actual Con attendance....

LosT

Same logic at work with me retiring and trying my hand at running the wireless contests.

[LosT]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

Heh, Render, pretty soon there won't be anyone in the contests, we'll all be running them...

Now if we could just cross breed mystery challenge with Wifi events....

*runs off to plan proposals*

LosT

[DaKahuna]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

Heh, Render, pretty soon there won't be anyone in the contests, we'll all be running them...

Now if we could just cross breed mystery challenge with Wifi events....

*runs off to plan proposals*

LosT

A robot that is constantly moving with a WAP attached that is the "fox." Once you find the robot, you have to open it up to get a map of where the mystery box is located.

[theprez98]

Re: Prediction of low DC-15 turn out -- True of False?

A robot that is constantly moving with a WAP attached that is the "fox." Once you find the robot, you have to open it up to get a map of where the mystery box is located.

Less than 4 weeks to go...don't give him anymore ideas!