The future as predicted 107 years ago...

[Nikita]

Ok so I happened on this article earlier today and I am still thinking about it. Actually I cant help but think about it and the advances we have had in our tech that seemed impossible, but i regress.

This is an article written in the ladies home journal December, 1900.
http://bp3.blogger.com/_sGYULzoQCgA/...leo-future.jpg
In it they make a lot of very accurate predictions and a few assine ones. (its obvious they didn't believe in inflation) I suggest reading it and I would be interested to see if you had any thoughts on this. hell, why don't we make some predictions of our own, we are a very intelligent community with varying backgrounds, we should get a pretty decent narrowed down list like this one in no time..any takers?

Pay special attention to the last prediction, "few drugs will be swallowed" Then read this article: http://www.geek.com/hp-takes-the-pai...of-injections/

Also.. THIS is Fascinating way to hack your inkjet. http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,11...1/article.html

[goathead]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

Good find. Very forward thinking for the technology available at the time of the article.

I still await the delivery of groceries via tube and strawberries the size of apples... Good times lie ahead.

[Schuyler]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

I'm willing to offer one up for a future prediction, based on present-day trends and upcoming development:

In 100 years user-powered electronic compliments to mechanical locking systems will add the option of an audit trail to even consumer-level residential locks. It will be advertised as a way to keep track of your teenager's coming and goings.

Within 6 months miscreant teenagers across the country will have read about how to bypass the auditing feature somewhere on the internet.

[Deviant Ollam]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

i'll make predictions that aren't nearly as distant as a century hence. the first one concerns power & fuel...

as a global community we will move to alternative fuels and other sources of energy only when market forces make the current models completely unfeasible, and this change will be very gradual... it will not involve any cataclysmic moments.

while the Mad Max films were a great source of entertainment in my youth, and i've always wanted to drive the last of the V8 Interceptors, there will be no catastrophic oil wars or global societal breakdown as we pass to the region of diminishing returns within the Hubbert peak. first of all, what passes for "economically feasible" is an ever-changing line. at one point, people said it would be folly to pump oil from a well after the supply under the ground in that spot reached a certain level (the power needed to get the oil up from that depth would make it not worthwhile) then we started injecting natural gas back into these wells in order to boost underground pressures. for a time, that has been more cost-effective than pursuing other technologies.

eventually, other technologies will become more affordable and/or standard drilling will not be able to match the gains seen in other energy sectors. however, even with the eventual (and distant) end to an "oil culture" we won't see wholesale change in terms of our industrial machines, automobiles, etc. cars can operate with the same basic internal combustion or compression engines that we've had for the past century long after conventional fossil fuels are a chapter in the history books. in fact, the hardest obstacle will be coming up with what goes in the crankcase in the future, as opposed to what is going in the fuel tank.

from vegetable oil in diesel engines to corn (and eventually sugar vegetable or biomass) ethanol in gasoline engines and one day... hydrogen right in the combustion chamber, giving our world's motors their "oooomph" will not be as hard as keeping them lubricated. that's where the real engineering of vehicles and other machines will make leaps and bounds, in my prediction... the development of super-low-friction metals and the extraction or synthesis of adequate-viscosity substances from non-petroleum sources.



and i will quote one scientific prediction that could have a significant impact on the quality and nature of people's lives... quoting from Penn & Teller, actually...

"getting exercise" through artificial or contrived activities will become an antiquated notion worthy of ridicule by future generations

in one of the episodes of their fantastic show "Bullshit!" Penn & Teller discuss the modern fascination with health machines, workouts, gyms, diets, etc. they made a rather remarkable point that i had never really considered before... in order to procreate and keep our genetic material moving in a harsh environment where food was often scarce, human being evolved over eons and eons with two driving needs... to eat and to fuck.

no matter how much we may educate ourselves about the inherent risks concerning rampant eating and fucking in this modern age (when food is plentiful and population growth has actually become a problem) it doesn't change the fact that deep down our ingrained mentality is still based on our bodies trying to get as much food and sex as possible at all times.

they pointed out on the sex side of the equation, we didn't (and in fact could never) find a way to suppress or change our urges, but instead we developed new medical technologies that allow us to continue satisfying our biological needs without having negative impacts upon our lives (birth control, disease fighting drugs, etc)

the fact that we still approach the food side of the equation by attacking what goes on in our heads as opposed to what goes on in our stomachs is actually pretty silly, they state. it's highly likely that science, biotech, and other fields will eventually develop a safe, simple, and effective method of either engineering foods or tweaking human metabolism in ways that allow us to wholly satisfy our bodies' cravings without excessive weight gain and health risks.

they made this sort soliloquy of sorts while both perched on treadmills, jogging all the while. while they admitted that the future can't be predicted with total accuracy, Penn made the rather strong assertion that at the very least "what we're doing today [to stay in shape] is going to look incredibly stupid in 30 years"

[sharxbyte]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

i like the fruits =P

they were pretty accurate on A/C, internet, GMO, and our military capabilities.

if we make it 100 years, i think we will:

-develop and master the solid state laser, and utilize it as an effective weapon.
-GIANT STRAWBERRIES!
-reach light-speed, teleporters/wormhole
-civilize the moon
-make a mars landing/possibly civilize
-war with China, North Korea(no offense, but i think its coming)
-alien contact?( my dads an alien, but not that kind =p)
-a one government world
-more corruption
-a chip in our wrist(see the thread on it)
-time travel?
too much sci-fi here(is ther such a thing =p)
-brain transplant, high level medical abilities.
i would like to see an alternative power emerge.(i.e. not electricity or combustion)

[ghost_hex]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

The fruit prediction is very appealing. I can't wait for that one. :)

I predict within the next 100 years:
- organ donation will most likely, if not completely, be replaced by organ 'printing'.
Doctors won't have to wait for an organ to be flown from the other side of the country.
- The Human Race will be colonizing the moon.
- Organ cloning might become obsolete. (Why wait for a organ to grow in a petri-dish when you can just print one out?)
- Human micro-chipping will be as common as getting a driver's license. 'Chipping' may even replace licenses all together.
(I hope not, the thought of someone knowing where I am every minute of everyday is scary.)

[Deviant Ollam]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

Human micro-chipping will be as common as getting a driver's license.

see, i don't totally know about that. in fact, this is the one single part of human existence that may actually have a slight chance of being made better by religious loon-bags. many fundamentalists consider the whole RFID notion to be akin to the "mark of the beast" prophesied in scripture. (many parallels, i'll admit... particularly relating to how the liturgy describes one's inability to conduct business without said mark.)

there's a chance that the fervor over such "mark of the beast" fears could shove the notion of human chipping off the table. the only trick is, it would (in my view) have to be preemptive legislation. the time line for RFID implants to potentially become universal (or at least, materially integrated with the workings of modern society) is rather long, decades i believe. religions will have fallen by the way side in any meaningful sense by such a time, and with them will have demised the outrage over liturgy of the Apocalypse/Revelation.

no, i think our best hope would be the leveraging of the fears of today's generations of highly-vociferous nutjobs. getting prominent religious leaders in a fury and having them stir up their congregations could actually have a chance at congressional leaders passing legislation that would (one could hope) outlaw the use of RFID for any public purpose recognized by the government. (in my view, that would be financial transfers and identification. private firms would still be free to use RFID for security measures, etc... but government agencies and public employees would be barred from such methods)

[Thorn]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

This may be cutting close to the P&R cliff, but here goes:

the time line for RFID implants to potentially become universal (or at least, materially integrated with the workings of modern society) is rather long, decades in my view. religions will have fallen by the way side in any meaningful sense by such a time, and with them will have demised the outrage over liturgy of the Apocalypse/Revelation.

That's wishful thinking, I'm afraid. Belief in the supernatural is one of those things that humans seem to be quite capable of continued self-delusion, and organized groups seem to just extend the life of such fallacies. Stamping out ritualistic superstition is something I'm very pessimistic about. It will take thousands of years in my view.

Part of it is the brainwashing that most groups as a whole require of the youngsters by their elders. Once they get old enough to think critically, the kids literally cannot do so, unless they are incredibly smart or extremely strong-willed. That makes it self-perpetuating.

Getting back to the discussion at hand, I'm not sure that those religious groups opposed to RFID will be helpful to opposing required implants. By the very nature of their arguments -a certain interpretation of some obscure scripture, which could be read as anything from an RFID implant, to a birthmark, to a tattoo- I've never seen anyone have any reaction besides a smirk and rolling their eyes. I've even seen that among some very religious folks. To me, that translates to most people seeing that the "RFID = the make of the beast" belief as particular to a fringe group. Even if they were organized enough to mount some real opposition, all they might gain (or want) is a religious exemptions for any government requirement for RFID. Religious exemptions have always been an accepted part of the church and state separations. Many religious groups in this country have lawful exceptions to government actions based solely on their religion's opposition to a given action of agenda.

[Deviant Ollam]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

I'm not sure that those religious groups opposed to RFID will be helpful to opposing required implants. ... I've never seen anyone have any reaction besides a smirk and rolling their eyes.

i'd say Google for "mark of the beast" and look at the results that come up. looks like almost 50% of them pertain to VeriChip technology. granted, much talk on the internet is representative of the extreme fringe and not mainstream views, but still... i think this sort of fear of RFID has more of a following than many are aware of.

[renderman]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

i'd say Google for "mark of the beast" and look at the results that come up. looks like almost 50% of them pertain to VeriChip technology. granted, much talk on the internet is representative of the extreme fringe and not mainstream views, but still... i think this sort of fear of RFID has more of a following than many are aware of.

I'm currently working on a project to go mythbusters on some of the crackpot 'facts' used on both sides of the RFID debate.

I've spent way too much time reading about this (write a book and you learn more than you ever wanted) and The opposition (aside for generic religious fury) always seems to be a misguided notion that such tags either contain loads of personal information (instead of just the unique ID they have) or that they can be read at great distances (such as satellites), another preposterous fear.

That said, it's wise to understand the risks/benifits of such technology so we *don't* go down a slippery slope where the technology can be abused as some of the outlandish fears suggest.

RFID has it's place but should be completely evaluated and understood before going forward. The oft cited data center employees who got RFID implants did so voluntarily (other employees opted for key fobs. Guess the chipped ones loose their keys alot) and were not mandated as part of employment.

<PLUG>
Keep an eye on personalwireless.org for my semi-regular rants about dumb RFID fears and assertions
</PLUG>

[ghost_hex]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

Human chipping has it's purposes: finding pets, locating people with Alzheimer's. Even parents that are concerned about their children being kidnapped. Though, I believe, when the child grows up he/she should have the choice to have it removed.

What I find so cool, is the ability to take the human genome and print it! That ability is the beginnings of new bridges!

Imagine a doctor not having to keep collecting sample after sample of a damaged tissue or, having to conserve their materials. They can just stick the sample in to their modified printer and presto! They have more materials to work with so, they can perform all the tests they need. The Doctors don't have to gather more samples from an already overly stressed patient.

The printing of proteins then, opens up the possibility of growing organs. Imagine a family member only having to wait for the organ to grow; not for a patient that continually changes his/her mind.

These capabilities hopefully are in the near future. Then again, I have always been a dreamer.

[Deviant Ollam]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

or that they can be read at great distances

what is the current record at which anyone has experimentally read an RFID tag?

isn't the EZ-Pass toll collection system RFID-based? the readers there are way at the top of the toll lanes, something like 6 to 8 feet above most vehicles. quite outside the "12 to 16 inches" that many manufacturers report. so what's the deal there?

do they have additional tech inside of the EZ Pass transponder besides what one sees in a typical, let's say, animal ID tag? one toll collector once said that she suspected my "batter was dying" when my tag failed to read properly. i didn't want to tell her blatantly that i thought she was off her rocker since i have never cracked one open (and there didn't seem to be any productive way of informing her that i always stick my EZ Pass tags in the microwave as soon as they arrive in the mail) but that can't be right, can it? is there some sort of amplifier technology inside these little white boxes?

[Thorn]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

i'd say Google for "mark of the beast" and look at the results that come up. looks like almost 50% of them pertain to VeriChip technology. granted, much talk on the internet is representative of the extreme fringe and not mainstream views, but still... i think this sort of fear of RFID has more of a following than many are aware of.

Yeah, I'm aware of that viewpoint, as I first came across that particular weirdness when Render and I were writing RFID Security. Judging by the hysteria and misinformation, they seem to be a bunch of neo-Luddites who don't understand anything more technological than an elevator, and who fear anything they don't understand.

what is the current record at which anyone has experimentally read an RFID tag?

isn't the EZ-Pass toll collection system RFID-based? the readers there are way at the top of the toll lanes, something like 6 to 8 feet above most vehicles. quite outside the "12 to 16 inches" that many manufacturers report. so what's the deal there?

do they have additional tech inside of the EZ Pass transponder besides what one sees in a typical, let's say, animal ID tag? one toll collector once said that she suspected my "batter was dying" when my tag failed to read properly. i didn't want to tell her blatantly that i thought she was off her rocker since i have never cracked one open (and there didn't seem to be any productive way of informing her that i always stick my EZ Pass tags in the microwave as soon as they arrive in the mail) but that can't be right, can it? is there some sort of amplifier technology inside these little white boxes?

Let me answer the second question first, and explain theworkings of EzPass tags. Before I even do that however, you have to understand that RFID devices come in two basic flavors:"passive" and "active". Both act as transponders, in that they receive a specific signal and respond to it. However, they are drastically different in how they work internally.

Passive RFID tags work by getting electromagnetic energy within the "near field" of a radio transmitter. A coil-capacitor circuit with the tag coverts that electromagnetic energy from the RFID Reader into electricity and uses the electricity to power a very low power transmitter for a very short amount of time. This means that passive tags have to be physically near the transmitter, as passive tags will only work in the near field. While the near field varies by frequency and the RF power, it is usually within several inches -out to a maximum of several feet- of the Reader at the frequencies and power levels currently in use by RFID devices.

Active tags contain a battery (or an external power supply) and are able to transmit over greater distances than passive tags. Well outside of the near field. Active tags are much larger than passive tags, by several orders of magnitude owing to having a battery on board the device. They also may contain a more powerful transmitter.

A passive tag can be as small as a grain of rice. The largest passive RFID device I've ever personally seen was about 6"x6"x1/4" in size. Other the other hand, active tags start at about the size of 2"x2"x1/4" and can go up to the size of a of CD-ROM drive.

Both active and passive tags may contain something as simple as a serial number, a series of strings or more some more information, or may actually exchange encrypted information. For example, Ford uses passive RFID tags implanted within the keys many models of cars including the Explorer. Even with a key cut to the correctly physical pattern, you will not be able to start the car without the correct RFID device exchanging encrypted information with the vehicle.*

Examples of passive devices are those VeriChip units, and the the typical "pet chips" used for veterinary ID purposes.

The EzPass (FastPass, etc.) are probably the most common active device seen by the public. And, yes, these devices do contain a battery.

The Exxon/Mobil SpeedPass key fobs are passive devices, while the rarer vehicle-mounted SpeedPass tags are active devices.**

So, to answer your first question, the longest distance that an RIFD device has been read was an active tag -similar to an EzPass- that was read at about 70 feet. That was accomplished at DC12 or DC13.

The maximum that a passive tag can be read varies with the size of the near field. I believe that stands at about 12 feet as the longest distance a passive tag may be read. There are certain laws of RF physics that prevent the near field from getting much larger.

Notes:

Aircraft IFF transponders are another example of an active RFID device (and historically they are the very first RFID devices), although they are not as well known by the general public, and usually not what most people thing about as an RFID tag. IFF units are typically read over very long distances (tens and hundreds of miles). These devices are specifically designed for this purpose, have high powered transmitters, special antennas, and are physically very large in comparison to most other RFID devices.

*The encryption used in the Ford keys was broken by Johns Hopkins students in 2005.
**Ditto. Exxon/Mobile and Ford used the same encryption scheme.

(Render is right. Write a book on a subject and you tend to learn far more than you ever wanted to know... )

[renderman]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

Even parents that are concerned about their children being kidnapped. Though, I believe, when the child grows up he/she should have the choice to have it removed.

Right there, that's the crap I want to stop. (No offense, it's just that your statement was a prime example of the pro-side of the arguments over pitching the use of RFID)

Hmm, passive RFID tag implanted under the skin. Read range: about a foot if your lucky.

How does this help prevent kidnapping? It might help you sort out body parts afterwards, but it cannot relay GPS location to the feds in case of abduction. An active tag, read range, 10's of feet. Still not that useful and is significantly bulkier making it obvious to your kidnappers and removing the usefulness of an implanted (i.e. hidden, non-removable) tag. In either case, if I can read it, I can probably see it.

I'm derailing this thread are'nt I. My apologies.

[MiL]

Re: The future as predicted 107 years ago...

With a sad attempt trying too relate with the first post, I remeber Jules Vernes predicting satelite technology in his books, and then there was Da Vinci with his most interesting sketches.

I would like to make one prediction though, the world will not end by any natural means, nor by war or strife. the world shall end because some too-smart for his own good scientist develops something that simply wipes mankind from existence.

Something exciting for you physics buffs http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_Hadron_Collider